| |
|
 Dancing with the warlords. By Shaacir Mataan
|
Within the past three days, Ali Ghedi, the Prime Minister of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), pompous with a premature jocularity, declared a godless victory over a crushed and tired Mogadishu populace. Ahmed Dirie, the spokesperson of the Hawiye elder's group, aware of overwhelming casualties, capitulated to the traitor camp.
The irony of the sunken statements of these men is that the two were indeed mere spectators in a very brutal and bloody theatre set up by Bush and his "war on terror".
And with these proclamations, we have been promised that the Mogadishu inferno of the past weeks is over. However, the killing fields of Mogadishu are far from done and defeat. Neither party; the occupying Ethiopian troops and their warlord clients, nor the insurgent Islamist and their loyal clan militias, laid their guns down for good. According to General Gabre, who is the de-facto governor of the Sixth State, the threat of "terrorism" is there and until "terrorists" are wiped out of Mogadishu, there is no letdown of the Ethiopian assault. Mesfin, the Ethiopian Foreign Minister, while in visit to Washington concur Gabre�s effrontery and reassured his American patrons that what is left is the "mop-up operation" of few rebel clans and areas.
The insurgents and their leaders in Eritrea, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the executive chairman of the ousted Islamic Courts Union, and Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, the fired former speaker of the TFG parliament, stated that the armed struggle is not over as long as the Ethiopian occupiers are in Somalia. Both leaders justified the insurgents pull-back as a tactical change from the face-to-face fighting to a guerrilla hit-and-run struggle. This could mean suicide bombings, sabotage and whatever tactic it takes to drive the Ethiopian enemy out of Somalia.
It is the reality on the ground that forced the Somali insurgency to back away. Putting civilian in the crossfire was a price the weary insurgents couldn't keep on any more.
The fighting between the occupying Ethiopian troops and the Somali insurgents had caused the death of more than 1,500 people in less than 10 days, more than 5,000 people injured, whole neighborhoods razed to the ground, more than half a million people out of the two million residents in the capital, displaced. The violent "ethnic cleansing" caused a major humanitarian crisis: outbreaks of serious diseases, including cholera and malaria, shortage of food and water. That is insupportable price to stomach.
The silence and apathy of the International Community was also another tip-off for the insurgents to change course. Jendayi Frazer, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs of the State Department, sealed this international indifference with a kiss and hug to the warlords for "job well done".
Since then, there seems to be a lull in some areas of the capital but a horrendous tale of elimination, looting, intimidation, arbitrary arrests and hostage-taking is taking place.
At the same time, the world government is flexing its illegitimate force by bringing estranged warlords into the fold. Two of the warlords the Islamists ousted last year, are now appointed as the Chief of the Police and the Mayor of the Capital. The other notorious Mogadishu warlords are being groomed for governmental positions while opposition parliamentarians are being replaced with door-knobs and yes-men.
The preparation of the fake reconciliation congress to dupe the International donors and swindle their funds is in full gear. An Inclusive clan political participation and power-sharing is promoted as a panacea to the Somali predicament. This is what the illegitimate Transitional Federal Government patrons would like to happen so as to keep other Somali ideological alliances and actors who eschew clan-based politics out. The 4.5 clan formula is the only criterion for participation in this congress. The moderate elements of the courts and those who reject violence are summoned and courted to sit with the brutal warlords. There is no hope that Somali warlords and their opponents will comprise. How can one accept the ruthless Somali warlords as partners for peace? How can one negotiate with warlord traitors who have blood on their hands? Aren�t these the ones who brought our enemies to mutilate our innocent masses?
Another hurdle is how to deal with this practical joke put on the plate? The International community seems to buy it and benevolently endorsing a primordial plan to build what is supposed to be a 21st century nation-state.
The dilemma is all ours. Since the day of independence Somalis put the clan at the center of the political process. And now that we are close to the 50th anniversary of our independence, some still prescribe to this deadly clan idea and interpret the latest Mogadishu massacre as a clan power-struggle. No group or clan, even with foreign military force, can subjugate others into submission. The long and disastrous Somali civil war should have taught us that the Zero-sum game mentality where the winner takes all is the original sin of the Somali misery: a deadly failure in the first order.
The chorus from every circle and every corner is to have an all inclusive and comprehensive government and a TFG commissioned reconciliation conference is staged as the one to reach that goal. There is no question that the way forward is through dialogue and negotiated settlement. That is a lofty mission but is the warlord government has any proclivity to concede and sit down with its opponents? The Transitional Federal Government (TFG, of the warlords) is only interested to quell its opponents by force. To save face and secure funds, they may forgo the violent approach for now. The patrons of the TFG will never allow the Islamists to have a political party and legality in Somalia. To prevent that happening, the International Community has to prolong the Ethiopian presence in Somalia.
There is no prospect that Ethiopia will withdraw its troops out of Somalia for the near future. Ethiopia is determined to keep Somalia under its radar and fashion the future government of Somalia to its liking. As a landlocked nation with a huge population that is expected to double to 140 Million by 2050, must have a corridor to the sea for economic reasons. So, the balkanization and warlord empowerment is seen Ethiopia�s national interest and guarantee to the Promised Land of the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. Forgone is the idea of pursuing a regional economic integration with neighbors. Such pursuit could cost-effectively warrant an access to the sea to the Ethiopians. But for now, the Tigre Junta in Addis has another agenda. The detrimental clannish nature of the Somalis is an attractive blueprint to get to the sea. The perceived threat of Islamists is another winning formula to petition for foreign support and patronage and to buy time in power.
The above murky set-up doesn't sound good, so is there a way out of this Somalia doom?
Even though, it is a far-fetched pipe-dream, the downfall or ouster of the three current drivers of our suffering: Somali warlords, the Tigre Junta and Bush Administration; could precipitate a quick fix to our short-term problems.
Let us start with the obvious: Bush's term is done at the end of 2008. A new American president will be sworn into office on January 20th, 2009. The new president, regardless of gender, color and party affiliation will probably re-visit the neoconservative doctrine of unilateralism and hegemonic global adventure. The "war on terror� discredited thanks to the catastrophic Iraqi invasion could be the catalyst for this change of course. Besides, the perceived �Islamic threat�, America will have other issues to take care of first: its domestic affairs and its important geo-political interests which obviously have much precedence than Somalia. Would the strategic Horn of Africa be a second-thought to the new admin? Somalia could gain a better treatment from America�s new foreign policy.
Secondly, the current Tigre Junta in power in Addis Ababa could only be brought down by combination and escalation of the mutinous activities of the many disenfranchised ethnic groups and opposition parties in Ethiopia. The latest rebel attack on the Chinese oil-exploration field in the Somali region by the Ogadeni rebels was only the tip of the iceberg of the many uprising the Zenawi regime has to ward off. An overstretched army in the Somali quagmire, the Oromia�s quest for self-determination and the border conflict with Eritrea all prefigure bad luck for the minority Tigre Junta. So, how does that help Somalia? Meles Zenawi might have his hands full to protect the Tigre reign and as a result might forgo the Somali adventure. To sustain the occupation of Somalia, Ethiopia has to have a steady follow of funds from its donors.
Lastly, the downfall of the warlord dominance and the clannish rivalry in Somali politics and society could indeed be the god-sent miracle that will rescue Somalia from its self-inflicted misery. The Ethiopian invasion and the Mogadishu massacre were the last straw that broke the acquiescence of the warlords as tolerable politicians. Somalis now loathe the warlords and their selfish pursuit of power at the expense of the nation and its people. Majority of ordinary Somali are fed up with these bloody maniacs and as well look down on the current warlord government as an illegitimate foreign imposed entity. Only few clannish chauvinists and cheerleaders follow the warlords.
In their wisdom, some optimistic and practical Somali groups may choose to engage the warlords until Somalia transitions to a warlord-less time so that the failed state of Somalia could be re-established.
After legitimizing war criminals and imposing them on the Somali people, after supporting the violent ouster of Islamists who have shown a proven record to bring peace with no cost and after being a questionable complicity to the Mogadishu carnage, the International Community, in its shared interest, is promoting and expending millions of dollars on yet another farcical reconciliation conference; one whose participants are hand-picked by the warlords and sidelines Somali intellectuals, civil society groups unless they subscribe to despised 4.5 clan formula.
Shaacir Mataan,
E-mail:[email protected]
Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Godeynews |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
 
|
